With the U.S. Federal Election now done and dusted and the initial reactions to Donald Trump’s second term calming, markets worldwide—including Australia’s $11 trillion residential property sector—are poised to return to standard transmission.

But what does Donald Trump’s second stint in the White House mean for the Australian economy and our favourite asset class, residential real estate? According to Angus Raine, Executive Chairman of Raine & Horne, having the election result confirmed provides some clarity about what to expect from the next president’s leadership style, allowing buyers and investors to get on with it. Ultimately, issues such as the price of petrol and groceries and the direction of interest rates are of far greater interest to Australian property owners than who will occupy the White House,” Angus said.

While some commentators express concern over the potential impact of the next Trump administration on the Australian economy, especially talk of higher tariffs, the prevailing view is that Australian products won’t be directly impacted. Moreover, during the previous Trump term, our real estate markets preformed solidly, if not spectacularly. That said, the last year of the first Trump administration coincided with the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the real estate market recovery of 2021 and 2022 was still in the early stages at that time.

In the December quarter of 2016, just before Mr Trump was sworn into office, the mean dwelling price in Australia was $656,800[i]. By December 2020, as Mr Trump’s term concluded, it had risen to $728,000[ii]. Although this 10% increase wasn’t a boom, it was still a solid gain, given the challenges presented by the pandemic.

Angus Raine said, “Australian elections typically create some uncertainty in our real estate markets, as buyers often wait for the results before making decisions. Generally, overseas polls don’t have the same effect.

“However, this U.S. election has sparked significant local interest, and it’s hard to imagine that the presidential race could influence housing markets 15,000 kilometres from the White House – but some of our agents were reporting it did.

“With Americans making a call on their next president, we will see more Aussies calling into open for inspections and helping extend the traditional spring selling season all the way up to Christmas.”

If you’re considering listing a property before Christmas, contact your local Raine & Horne office.

[i] https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mediareleasesbyReleaseDate/D5E939C3957EE57DCA2581440020C8CC?OpenDocument

[ii] https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/residential-property-price-indexes-eight-capital-cities/dec-2020